WHAT ARE TRUMP'S ARABS LOOKING FOR?


Donald Trump begins his second presidential term on January 1, in which he has promised to end the war in Ukraine and continue to support Israel in all its war adventures, including Gaza and Syria, also hinting that he would maintain his positions on the Atlantic Alliance Organization (NATO), which he considers less necessary in its militaristic phase, once better relations with Putin's Russia have been established.


The Arabs who possess wealth in natural gas and crude oil constitute the group that interests Trump the most, in the context of his relations with the Arab world. For Trump, it is essential that the Organization of Exporting Countries (OPEC) does not act against the interests of the United States; which means at least a stability of prices and the level of extraction. Trump does not want a crisis with the oil-producing countries, but he can pressure them when he considers it necessary.


The Syrian case points to a certain responsibility of Washington in the fall of Bashir El Asad, although this cannot be proven so far. What is clear is that Trump and the Israeli Netanyahu are not interested in an integrist Syria, and will maintain a strategic line so that the new Syrian regime changes its policy in the sense of maintaining good relations with the new tenant of the White House.


With Iran there is not the slightest prospect of Trump improving relations, but quite the opposite. The president will support Israel in considering the Islamic republic a country committed to the “king of evil”. The fall of Syria has been a positive factor for the United States. Iran cannot expect Trump to establish normal relations with Tehran. What Trump hopes is to limit relations between Iran and the integrist world, although this was a primary task for the American intelligence services.


• Trump will put pressure on the Arab countries that have not yet done so to recognise Israel, but this will not affect Saudi Arabia, which, through the mouth of the Prince, Mohamed Bn Salman, has stated that his country will not recognise the Hebrew state until Israel recognises an independent Palestinian state with its capital in eastern Al Quds. The Arabs will appeal to the almighty Allah, so that the Prince remains firm in his position.


In short, with the Arabs, Trump will maintain a policy of waiting, counting above all on those countries that are great allies such as Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Qatar and the Emirates. For the new president, it is important that these countries become an increasingly larger group of power.


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